China economy – Bizchina Update http://bizchina-update.com/ Fri, 26 Nov 2021 02:46:13 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=5.8 https://bizchina-update.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/icon-120x120.jpg China economy – Bizchina Update http://bizchina-update.com/ 32 32 Chinese economy remains stable in October, showing resilience in the face of challenges https://bizchina-update.com/chinese-economy-remains-stable-in-october-showing-resilience-in-the-face-of-challenges/ Mon, 15 Nov 2021 05:12:00 +0000 https://bizchina-update.com/chinese-economy-remains-stable-in-october-showing-resilience-in-the-face-of-challenges/ Lujiazui photo: VCG China’s economy steadily recovered in October, boosted by better-than-expected performance in the retail sector and growth in industrial production, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday. Analysts pointed out that China’s overall economic performance represented the country’s strong economic resilience despite multiple challenges. In October, the country’s industrial production […]]]>

Lujiazui photo: VCG

China’s economy steadily recovered in October, boosted by better-than-expected performance in the retail sector and growth in industrial production, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday. Analysts pointed out that China’s overall economic performance represented the country’s strong economic resilience despite multiple challenges.

In October, the country’s industrial production recovered, increasing 3.5% year-on-year, from 3.1% in September, while industrial value added from January to October rose 10.9% year-on-year. annual.

Retail sales of consumer goods also rose in October, with the total amount reaching 4.05 trillion yuan ($ 630 billion), up 4.9% year-on-year and 0.5 percentage points from more than the previous month, while the total amount from January to October reached 35.8 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.9% from 2020.

“Although China was hit by sporadic outbreaks of COVID-19, energy shortages and extreme weather conditions in October, the country’s economy has remained relatively resilient,” Cong Yi, professor at the ‘Tianjin University of Finance and Economics.

Cong noted that China has a large population, and to date, 400 million people have reached middle income level, so the consumption levels of Chinese residents have remained stable; in the meantime, new consumption patterns continue to emerge, returning with stable supply and demand.

The figure measuring the country’s total investment in fixed assets from January to October increased by 6.1% on an annual basis, amounting to 44.58 trillion yuan, of which investment in real estate developments increased by 7.2%.

Fu Linghui, spokesperson for NBS, also said on Monday that signs that may look like stagflation are the result of short-term factors such as soaring international commodity prices that have tightened supply and raised prices. production for certain industries.

Total merchandise imports and exports also grew rapidly, and the country’s overall trade structure continued to improve in October, with a total trade value reaching 3.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 17.8 percent year-on-year. , exports and imports increasing by 20.3%. and 14.5% respectively.

Cong said China’s exports have increased significantly through an economy-wide industrial upgrade, with the development of high-tech manufacturing industry also showing great momentum.

Moreover, employment in the country has remained stable, with a total of 11.33 million new jobs created across the country from January to October, meeting the annual target ahead of schedule. The polled urban unemployment rate stood at 4.9% in October, unchanged from September and down 0.4 percentage point from the same period in 2020.

Cong noted that the Chinese economy will maintain a stable and gradual trend in the fourth quarter, and overall growth will not change significantly.

“The share of new energy sources will target significant growth. For example, the value added of high-tech manufacturing industry grew 14.7% year-on-year in October, and the production of new energy vehicles increased 127.9% from 2020, showing that the China has stepped up efforts to adapt. its industrial structure, ”said Cong.

Looking ahead, the BNS noted that challenges remain in a complex and uncertain international environment.

In addition, Cong pointed out that alongside the pandemic combined with international political and economic volatility, the Chinese real estate market has also aroused public concern. The government will further strengthen regulations to ensure timely settlement of properties and adhere to the principle that “housing is for living, not for speculating”.

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Chinese economy suffers major setbacks – Oakland News Now https://bizchina-update.com/chinese-economy-suffers-major-setbacks-oakland-news-now/ https://bizchina-update.com/chinese-economy-suffers-major-setbacks-oakland-news-now/#respond Thu, 28 Oct 2021 14:33:12 +0000 https://bizchina-update.com/chinese-economy-suffers-major-setbacks-oakland-news-now/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Hk3kYCAbB0 Oakland News Now – Chinese economy suffers major setbacks – video produced by the YouTube channel with the logo at the top left of the video. OaklandNewsNow.com is the original blog post for this type of video blog content. One of the world’s largest economies is under pressure as China’s economic sector faces disappointing […]]]>

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Hk3kYCAbB0

Oakland News Now –

Chinese economy suffers major setbacks

– video produced by the YouTube channel with the logo at the top left of the video. OaklandNewsNow.com is the original blog post for this type of video blog content.

One of the world’s largest economies is under pressure as China’s economic sector faces disappointing GDP growth, increased government regulation and …

Going through IFTTT

Note from Zennie62Media and OaklandNewsNow.com: This video blog post shows the full, live operation of the latest updated version of an experimental network of Zennie62Media, Inc. mobile multimedia video blogging system that was launched in June 2018 This is an important part of Zennie62Media, Inc.’s new and innovative approach to news media production. What we call “the third wave of media”. The uploaded video is from a YouTube channel. When the CBS News YouTube video channel uploads a video, it is automatically uploaded and automatically formatted on the Oakland News Now site and on social media pages created and owned by Zennie62. The overall goal here, in addition to our is the on-scene reporting of news, interviews, sightings and events anywhere in the world and in seconds and not hours – is the use of the network existing YouTube social. graphic on any topic in the world. Now the news is reported with a smartphone and also by promoting the current content on YouTube: no heavy and expensive camera or even a laptop is needed, nor to have a camera crew to film what is already. on Youtube. The secondary objective is the production and distribution of news media content faster and very inexpensively. We have found that there is a lag between the length of the post and the production time and revenue generated. With this the problem is much less, but by no means solved. Zennie62Media is constantly striving to improve the system’s network coding and is looking for interested multimedia content and technology partners.

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The Chinese economy is criticized. The S&P 500 could take the next hit. https://bizchina-update.com/the-chinese-economy-is-criticized-the-sp-500-could-take-the-next-hit/ https://bizchina-update.com/the-chinese-economy-is-criticized-the-sp-500-could-take-the-next-hit/#respond Wed, 20 Oct 2021 04:35:56 +0000 https://bizchina-update.com/the-chinese-economy-is-criticized-the-sp-500-could-take-the-next-hit/ The outlook for the Chinese economy is worsening as the country suffers from an electricity shortage, Covid-related restrictions, debt turmoil in its real estate sector, and government crackdowns on various businesses. European companies with strong sales in China have already taken a hard hit, but the pain could still be ahead for US multinationals – […]]]>

The outlook for the Chinese economy is worsening as the country suffers from an electricity shortage, Covid-related restrictions, debt turmoil in its real estate sector, and government crackdowns on various businesses. European companies with strong sales in China have already taken a hard hit, but the pain could still be ahead for US multinationals – and the


S&P 500.

European sectors exposed to China such as building materials, mining, automobiles and durable consumer goods such as luxury goods, are already far behind the market,

Bank of America
wrote strategist Savita Subramanian in a recent note to clients. Futures price-to-earnings ratios for building materials, mining and autos in Europe are close to their all-time lows. The stocks most exposed to China, such as mining companies BHP Group (BHP) and Rio Tinto (RIO), as well as luxury goods makers like

Sample group
(UHR.Switzerland) and Cie. Financière Richemont (CFR.Switzerland) – are among the hardest hit.

This contrasts with US companies heavily exposed to China. Subramanian says the valuations of companies with high sales in China have fallen less than for the market as a whole, leaving the bank’s most exposed basket of companies at a 20% premium to their peers, without even count Tesla (TSLA), a highly regarded company with a big deal in China. The dominance of technology in the U.S. stock market and expectations of a capital spending boom that would help some of these companies may be the root of the resilience of the U.S. market, but Subramanian still sees a problem.

“This risk premium seems too low, especially in light of our economists’ bearish scenario” for the Chinese economy, Subramanian wrote.

The pain could be sharp. Bank of America economists are bearish. They cut their estimates of China’s economic growth by 0.3 percentage points for this year and 1.3 percentage points for next year, leaving their calls near the low end of economists’ expectations. Their concern is that the Chinese authorities have been too slow to respond to the slowdown by adjusting their monetary or fiscal policy. Their stoicism in the face of recent weakness suggests to economists that this could mark a “restructuring of the Chinese economy once every two decades,” the company’s Asian strategists wrote in a separate research note. “If so, the flow of data from China could confuse even pessimists, and we are on our guard for this scenario to unfold. “

Indeed, BCA Research’s China investment strategists see reason to believe that the economic recovery may not be forthcoming. While fears that economic weakness could hurt China’s labor market, reducing household spending, have prompted authorities to take measures to support growth in the past, consumption is holding up relatively well and the unemployment rate has fallen. , according to BCA. This could eliminate the urgency for policymakers to take action, especially since electricity shortages cannot be alleviated by stimulus measures.

The takeaway: “A decisive re-acceleration of the Chinese economy is not yet imminent,” says a recent BCA report.

And that could cause problems for the S&P 500. BofA says its reduction in its call for gross domestic product growth translates into a 4.4% impact on the S&P 500 earnings per share, the result of factors such as the unraveling of globalization and more protectionist behavior as the United States and China are trying to reduce their mutual dependence.

US materials and tech stocks are most vulnerable to slower Chinese growth: their earnings are more correlated to Chinese GDP growth than to the speed at which the US economy is growing.

Active fund managers have spotted the risk. Subramanian said, noting that they are underweight stocks exposed to China relative to the S&P 500. Other investors may want to follow as risks to the world’s second largest economy increase.

The ripples are likely to be far-reaching.

Write to Reshma Kapadia at [email protected]


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Evergrande’s risks for Chinese economy ‘contained’, says IMF official https://bizchina-update.com/evergrandes-risks-for-chinese-economy-contained-says-imf-official/ Wed, 20 Oct 2021 02:28:20 +0000 https://bizchina-update.com/evergrandes-risks-for-chinese-economy-contained-says-imf-official/ (Bloomberg) – The risks to the economy linked to the collapse of the China Evergrande group are “contained” for the moment, according to a senior official at the International Monetary Fund. “People understand that the government has the tools to contain the risks going forward,” Helge Berger, the fund’s chief mission in China, told Bloomberg […]]]>

(Bloomberg) – The risks to the economy linked to the collapse of the China Evergrande group are “contained” for the moment, according to a senior official at the International Monetary Fund.

“People understand that the government has the tools to contain the risks going forward,” Helge Berger, the fund’s chief mission in China, told Bloomberg Television. Risks in the real estate sector are limited to the sector for now, but authorities should continue to monitor in case they escalate, he said.

China’s real estate sector is heavily indebted and authorities’ efforts to deleverage are welcome, Berger said, but they must be careful not to go too fast or too slow.

Developer China Evergrande Group’s debt crisis has intensified the slowdown in the country’s real estate sector and weighed on the economic outlook. China’s real estate and construction industries contracted in the third quarter for the first time since the start of the pandemic.

The IMF lowered its growth forecast for China and the Asia-Pacific region this year due to an increase in the delta variant and a delay in vaccinations. China’s forecast has been lowered to 8% from 8.4% to reflect ongoing outbreaks of the virus, tightening fiscal policy and tensions in the real estate sector.

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China’s economic swings cast a shadow over Asia, Auto News, ET Auto https://bizchina-update.com/chinas-economic-swings-cast-a-shadow-over-asia-auto-news-et-auto/ https://bizchina-update.com/chinas-economic-swings-cast-a-shadow-over-asia-auto-news-et-auto/#respond Tue, 19 Oct 2021 08:02:00 +0000 https://bizchina-update.com/chinas-economic-swings-cast-a-shadow-over-asia-auto-news-et-auto/ China’s gross domestic product weakened in the third quarter, according to data released this week. SINGAPORE / SEOUL: China’s economic setbacks have clouded prospects for countries in its orbit, from South Korea to Thailand, as sharp slowdowns in factories and trade bottlenecks in the world’s second-largest economy hit Asia on both the supply and demand […]]]>
China’s gross domestic product weakened in the third quarter, according to data released this week.

SINGAPORE / SEOUL: China’s economic setbacks have clouded prospects for countries in its orbit, from South Korea to Thailand, as sharp slowdowns in factories and trade bottlenecks in the world’s second-largest economy hit Asia on both the supply and demand sides.

China’s gross domestic product weakened in the third quarter, according to this week’s data, with growth reaching its lowest level in a year, affected by power shortages, supply chain problems and a crisis of the real estate market.

For China’s trading partners, the slippage presents new risks for what is shaping up to be a bumpy global recovery from the pandemic crisis.

“Yes, growth elsewhere, namely in the United States and Europe, appears robust,” wrote Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC. “But it was China that has been the main engine of growth in the region – and as it spits, Asian economies will lose much of their torque.”

HSBC’s analysis showed that Asia-Pacific economies, from South Korea to New Zealand, were much more correlated with changes in Chinese growth than with changes in US or European GDP.

For every percentage point that China added to its growth, the South Korean trade powerhouse reported about 0.7 points of additional growth, the bank’s economists said.

South Korea was by far the most sensitive to changes in Chinese growth, according to the analysis, followed by exporting countries Thailand and Taiwan.

An anticipated Chinese slowdown has already prompted Citi analysts to downgrade growth forecasts for the region’s economies, including South Korea, Taiwan, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam.

A Reuters business survey last week showed that a majority of Japanese companies feared a slowdown in China, Japan’s largest trading partner, would affect their businesses.

The slowdown is being felt across much of the Chinese economy, from retail sectors to factories, which have posted their weakest production growth since the start of the pandemic.

Auto sales in China fell 19.6% in September from a year earlier, industry data showed last week, dropping for a fifth consecutive month amid a prolonged global shortage of semiconductors and electricity shortage.

Likewise, sharp declines in new construction starts in the Chinese real estate market, due to regulatory crackdown, are emerging as risks for commodity exporters like Australia.

Iron ore prices have almost halved since hitting a record high in mid-May, as demand was affected by restrictions on steel production in China and slowing real estate.

Last week, mining giant Rio Tinto downgraded its forecast for iron ore shipments for 2021, mainly due to tense labor market conditions in Australia, but it also warned of headwinds of China’s regulatory crackdown.

‘STAGFLATION’

Despite the risks associated with China, analysts say Asia will be able to prevent a sharp collapse in domestic demand, as improving immunization rates allows countries in the region to rid themselves of restrictions linked to the COVID-19.

Likewise, Chinese demand for certain goods, such as fuel and food, remains strong. This means that for now, central banks are unlikely to deviate from their general tendency to move away from the monetary parameters of the crisis era.

Singapore tightened its monetary policy last week.

Beyond the broader demand shock, complications for economies in Asia and elsewhere could come from worsening supply issues in China, such as the electricity crisis.

So far, Chinese manufacturers and exporters have yet to significantly pass on the higher costs caused by supply shortages of everything from coal to semiconductors.

But analysts warn that the picture around inflation is fluid.

While weaker demand could ease the pressure on prices, supply chain bottlenecks, if left unresolved, could create a ‘stagflation’ nightmare in which soaring prices s. ‘accompanied by stagnant growth.

“I think it could be a bit of a double whammy now. Because China is one of the economic engines of the region, any downturn can affect demand for regional goods and services,” said Selena Ling, head of research and treasury strategy. at OCBC Bank.

“Second, due to the current electricity crisis, in all likelihood policy makers will prioritize home (use) for winter demand over industrial activity. So this could exacerbate global supply chain disruptions. “


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Soaring coal prices and squeezing electricity hit China’s economy and global supply https://bizchina-update.com/soaring-coal-prices-and-squeezing-electricity-hit-chinas-economy-and-global-supply-2/ Tue, 19 Oct 2021 07:00:00 +0000 https://bizchina-update.com/soaring-coal-prices-and-squeezing-electricity-hit-chinas-economy-and-global-supply-2/ Power shortages have helped push China’s economic growth to its lowest level in a year, while soaring coal prices on Monday further threaten Chinese industry and global supply chains. European companies have slashed their outlook amid global bottlenecks, while European gas prices, still over 350% higher than at the start of 2021, forced more electricity […]]]>

Power shortages have helped push China’s economic growth to its lowest level in a year, while soaring coal prices on Monday further threaten Chinese industry and global supply chains.

European companies have slashed their outlook amid global bottlenecks, while European gas prices, still over 350% higher than at the start of 2021, forced more electricity distribution companies through the region to flex.

The Czech Republic’s energy regulator took the exceptional step of asking suppliers to ensure they can provide electricity to homes and businesses, after another of the electricity and gas groups in the country has interrupted the supply.

Suppliers from other European markets, including Britain, have also shut down in recent weeks due to soaring energy prices.

In Asia, electricity supplier Ohm Energy said on its website that it left the Singapore retail electricity market on Friday, the third company to do so in recent weeks.

To alleviate the Chinese crisis, Beijing has taken a series of measures to increase the production of coal, which powers about 60% of its power plants. But Monday’s data showed those milestones were taking time to materialize as demand for electricity continued to soar.

Chinese coal production was 334.1 million tonnes last month, up from 335.24 million tonnes in August and 0.9% lower than a year earlier, according to official data.

That means September production averaged 11.14 million tonnes per day, according to Reuters calculations, compared to figures released by China last week, indicating daily production was over 11.2 million tonnes, barely higher despite Beijing’s efforts.

‘LOSE THE BATTLE’

“The Chinese government is losing the battle to control soaring coal prices,” said Alex Whitworth, Asia-Pacific energy and renewable energy research manager at Wood Mackenzie.

“Despite efforts to increase the supply of coal, production fell in September due to weather, security and logistical concerns. China has also failed to curb the surge in demand for electricity.

Data showed that energy constraints contributed to the slowdown in growth in China in the third quarter. The world’s second-largest economy grew 4.9%, its slowest pace since the third quarter of 2020 and down from 7.9% in the second quarter.

Domestic coal shortages have driven up fuel prices for Chinese power producers, forcing unprofitable companies to ration electricity to industrial users and forcing some factories to halt production, disrupting global supply chains.

European businesses are among those feeling the pinch, with the energy crisis adding to challenges including a shortage of memory chips and a lack of shipping containers.

‘WIND WIND TO CONTINUE’

Dutch healthcare tech company Philips PHG.AS is the latest to slash its outlook for sales and profit growth in 2021, saying a global shortage of electronic components has affected third quarter results. He was also affected by a recall of breathing apparatus.

“Supply chain volatility has intensified globally,” said CEO Frans van Houten. “We expect this headwind to continue into the fourth quarter.”

Fuel prices remain very high, with LCOc1 oil trading near three-year highs above $ 85 a barrel on Monday and up more than 60% this year. WHERE

The European gas benchmark TRNLTTFMc1 may have fallen from this month’s high, but is still up more than 350% this year.

Russia, which supplies around a third of Europe’s gas, said it was ready to pump more, but Russian officials also said Europe could ease its supply crisis and scorching prices by giving the green light for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project.

The Russian-led pipeline, which will double Russia’s export capacity to Germany via the Baltic Sea, said on Monday it had taken a new step to prepare for start-up.

Approval to start operations, however, could take months for the project, which the United States and some European countries oppose, fearing it will make Europe even more dependent on Russian energy.
Source: Reuters (Reporting by Kevin Yao, Gabriel Crossley, Muyu Xu and Shivani Singh in Beijing; Maria Kiselyova and Vladimir Soldatkin in Moscow; Bart Meijer in Amsterdam; Jason Hovet in Prague; Jessica Jaganathan in Singapore; edited by Edmund Blair and Jason Neely )


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Why is Xi Jinping ready to slow down the Chinese economy? https://bizchina-update.com/why-is-xi-jinping-ready-to-slow-down-the-chinese-economy/ https://bizchina-update.com/why-is-xi-jinping-ready-to-slow-down-the-chinese-economy/#respond Mon, 18 Oct 2021 21:32:47 +0000 https://bizchina-update.com/why-is-xi-jinping-ready-to-slow-down-the-chinese-economy/ I mean, if there’s anything that poses a real threat to Facebook in the future, it’s whether or not people themselves, consumers start to opt out. Is it a place for young people all over the world or is it really just people like me who are engaged in display and all that stuff. But […]]]>

I mean, if there’s anything that poses a real threat to Facebook in the future, it’s whether or not people themselves, consumers start to opt out. Is it a place for young people all over the world or is it really just people like me who are engaged in display and all that stuff. But why do I feel this way? Well, one, because the government has no agreement on what to do.

I mean, on the right you have a lot of people who think the culture warriors are the problem. It is the politically incorrect that is not allowed. These are the right-wing people who are needlessly kidnapped. So of course it starts with Trump. It goes further with others. It’s certainly true that the most viewed sites on Facebook are still people like Ben Shapiro and Dan Bongino and Fox News. It’s not consistent every day, but it’s absolutely majority. So it is difficult to make this argument overall, but certainly in terms of the individual people who are being undone and the people who are seen as putting forward, which is described as fake news and disinformation on Facebook, Whether around elections or white nationalism and supremacy, or even around vaccines and the pandemic response, there has been more sensitivity to both the actions and responses from the right than from the left.

On the other hand, on the left, you have people who say that there is too much power. It is bad for civil society. It pushes people to extremes. He encouraged all kinds of stopping behavior and encouraged violence accordingly. And so it’s a whole lot different from what … When the country is as tribal as it is, the answers to where you see a lot of that tribalism are very, very different.

Second, the company itself is of course not interested in taking primary responsibility for solving regulatory challenges. I mean, companies always say they prefer to self-regulate functionally, but they don’t want to have direct responsibility for it because that implies direct responsibility with the people for it. So in other words, it reminds me of what you used to hear from China 10 or 20 years ago, which is, “hey, we’re little. We are poor. We are weak. global solutions, look to the US for global solutions. “Facebook is doing kind of the same thing. I mean, I don’t know if you’ve read Axios this morning, but Facebook is sponsoring it. And they’re basically saying, hey , we want regulations. We want the government to tell us that there are issues with the kind of news that is on our site and others. And we want the government to create new sets of rules that are ‘will apply to the whole internet, to all social media, which will determine how we should operate, what kind of information we should post, what we should not post. They ask for it. And in part they ask for it because they know they’re not really going to get it, but partly they’re asking for it because it doesn’t mean their responsibility. If it doesn’t work, it’s on someone else. is about the US government. Plus, Facebook, like most of these AI-driven organizations, don’t really know what their algorithms are doing, what the algorithms actually do. And that’s an AI problem. You have deep learning about massive amounts of big data. And you understand that it gives you results that drive more engagement, but you don’t really know exactly what it does.

This means nothing to you. I mean, you can figure out which models he’s getting information from, but it’s a lot different having a human sitting down and explaining, okay, here’s why we get more engagement. Here is the strategy and the logic behind it. I mean, when you program algorithms to look inside the data, to get more engagement, you’ll get this result. And this is not an effort to polarize. Nor is it an effort not to polarize. It’s just an effort to generate more engagement. And if the companies themselves don’t really know what the algos are doing, then it’s very difficult for them to say to themselves, “well, here’s what we would do if we wanted to make civil society more strong “. Because that’s not what you’re optimizing for. You are optimizing for the business model itself.

Then of course you have the point that it is the United States against China in terms of supremacy of the various technological capabilities of which Facebook is a part. And if you weaken Facebook, if you dismantle Facebook, if you set Facebook in a way that fundamentally subverts its business model, whereas in China, with a lot more citizens and a lot more data, because there is no really consolidated privacy in super apps, well, Chinese companies are going to be more successful. They will win. And if these companies are increasingly meant to be an important part of what national security means and how we compete on the world stage, the worst thing you can do is undermine American companies at the expense of their own. competitiveness vis-à-vis China.

So I think all of these things put together are reasons why we’re unlikely to see structural regulation that will significantly undermine the power of organizations like Facebook to have more and more influence over domains in which they play. And in the case of Facebook, it’s really the social interactions, information, and news that the average person in the world on the platform, 3 billion people at this point, digests in.

I think there are … Like Ian Bremmer here, there are some obvious fixes that would reduce the level of the problem. I mean, solution number one seems pretty clear to me, that choosing not to broadcast any political advertising would improve the level of information and the quality of speech about the US elections. It’s number one. Second, systematically reduce the importance of home politics, or heck, even all politics on the site so that people who go to Facebook don’t primarily get that kind of information. It is against my best interests, frankly, but nonetheless, I think it would probably help.

And third, my favorite, everyone should be checked out. Every person who is on the site should actually be a real person like on LinkedIn, for example. They need to log in and verify who they are. If they break the terms of the deal, that means they lose that. And they can’t just create another random anonymous account. Now the problem with these three fixes is that they would all undermine the business model in different ways. You will make less money if you don’t take political ads, if you don’t run them. You’ll make less money if something really popular gets a lot of engagement, like the policy that is low in prevalence on the site. You will make less money if you get rid of all the anonymous accounts, bots, and fake trolls because they drive engagement, they drive a lot of engagement.

So there are very legitimate reasons why a company run by shareholders would not take the necessary steps to make these kinds of fixes. And there are also a lot of reasons that I mentioned earlier, why the US government will not put in place the kind of regulations that would lead to fixes like this. So what does this mean? What’s going to happen? What’s going to happen is we’re going to have to adapt to an environment where tech companies are increasingly powerful in various digital spaces.

It reminds me of the first time I had the idea of ​​”G-Zero World”, a world without global leadership almost 10 years ago now, and immediately the response I received from people is “d ‘Okay, Ian, well, that’s bad. So how do we stop that from happening? ”And I was like,“ Well, what do you mean? How do we prevent that from happening? ”I’m telling you, I think it’s going to happen and it’s going to happen because it’s overdetermined, because the United States no longer wants to be the global policeman or the architect of world trade for deep and structural reasons. And the Europeans themselves are more divided and less able and willing to provide that kind of leadership in the absence of the United States. And the Russians are in decline, but angry with the Americans and the Europeans. They want to further undermine these countries and their ability and willingness to exercise that leadership. And China is getting stronger, but it is not aligned with the political and economic models of states United and Europe.

So that’s not how we prevent the “G-Zero” from coming. Since the “G-Zero” is coming, what do you do? How do you respond to them? How do you adapt to it? It’s like climate change. We started 27 years ago, the COP process and the people involved weren’t even talking about adaptation because that was equivalent to surrender. If you said that you were going to adapt to climate change, that meant that you refused, that you abdicated responsibility for a world to which we had to stop climate change. And yet the reasons why climate change was not going to be stopped were incredibly overdetermined. So entrenched with many players around the world, that it should have been obvious that we were heading towards one, two degrees, more and more three degrees centigrade of warming. And that’s a horrible thing for the environment, but we have to adapt to it. That’s not to say we’ve stopped trying to mitigate the consequences themselves, of course, but you can’t refuse to adapt. Coping should be a big part of how you react. And I think when we talk about Facebook, when we talk about tech companies more broadly, adaptation is increasingly a central part of the model, in part because it happens much faster than climate change. And for the reasons I put forward, I really don’t think it’s reasonable to assume that we’re going to be able to fix this in the near future.

That’s enough for me. I hope everyone is doing well. Talk to everyone soon.


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The Chinese economy affected by a “complicated and serious environment”. What there is to know. https://bizchina-update.com/the-chinese-economy-affected-by-a-complicated-and-serious-environment-what-there-is-to-know/ https://bizchina-update.com/the-chinese-economy-affected-by-a-complicated-and-serious-environment-what-there-is-to-know/#respond Mon, 18 Oct 2021 14:48:00 +0000 https://bizchina-update.com/the-chinese-economy-affected-by-a-complicated-and-serious-environment-what-there-is-to-know/ Text size Evergrande Headquarters in Shenzhen, Southeast China. The real estate developer has missed three bond payments in recent weeks. AFP via Getty Images China’s gross domestic product grew less than expected in the third quarter of the year, as government measures to reduce debt in the real estate sector and power cuts ordered by […]]]>

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Soaring coal prices and squeezing electricity hit China’s economy and global supply https://bizchina-update.com/soaring-coal-prices-and-squeezing-electricity-hit-chinas-economy-and-global-supply/ https://bizchina-update.com/soaring-coal-prices-and-squeezing-electricity-hit-chinas-economy-and-global-supply/#respond Mon, 18 Oct 2021 10:07:29 +0000 https://bizchina-update.com/soaring-coal-prices-and-squeezing-electricity-hit-chinas-economy-and-global-supply/ By Kevin Yao, Muyu Xu and Jason Hovet BEIJING / PRAGUE, October 18 (Reuters) – Electricity shortages have helped bring down China’s economic growth to its lowest in a year, as the surge in coal prices on Monday further threatens Chinese industry and global supply chains. European companies reduced their outlook amid global bottlenecks, while […]]]>

By Kevin Yao, Muyu Xu and Jason Hovet

BEIJING / PRAGUE, October 18 (Reuters)Electricity shortages have helped bring down China’s economic growth to its lowest in a year, as the surge in coal prices on Monday further threatens Chinese industry and global supply chains.

European companies reduced their outlook amid global bottlenecks, while European gas prices, still more than 350% higher than at the start of 2021, forced more electricity distribution companies across the region to buckle down.

The Energy regulator of the Czech Republic took the exceptional step of requiring suppliers to provide assurance that they could provide electricity to homes and businesses, after another group of electricity and gas in the country cut off the supply.

Suppliers from other European markets, including Britain, have also shut down in recent weeks due to soaring energy prices.

In Asia, electricity supplier Ohm Energy said on its website that it left the Singapore retail electricity market on Friday, the third company to do so in recent weeks.

To alleviate the Chinese crisis, Beijing has taken a series of measures to increase the production of coal, which powers about 60% of its power plants. But data from Monday showed those steps were take the time to eat while the demand for electricity continued to increase.

Chinese coal production was 334.1 million tonnes last month, down from 335.24 million tonnes in August and 0.9% lower than a year earlier, according to official data.

That means September production averaged 11.14 million tonnes per day, according to Reuters calculations, compared to figures released by China last week, indicating daily production was over 11.2 million tons. barely higher despite Beijing’s efforts.

‘LOSE THE BATTLE’

“The Chinese government is losing the battle to control soaring coal prices,” said Alex Whitworth, head of energy and renewable energy research in Asia-Pacific at Wood Mackenzie.

“Despite efforts to increase the supply of coal, production fell in September due to weather, security and logistical concerns. China has also failed to curb the surge in demand for coal. electricity.”

Data showed that energy constraints contributed to the slowdown in growth in China in the third quarter. The world’s second-largest economy grew 4.9%, its slowest pace since the third quarter of 2020 and down from 7.9% in the second quarter.

Domestic coal shortages have driven up fuel prices for Chinese power producers, forcing unprofitable companies to ration electricity to industrial users and forcing some factories to halt production, disrupting global supply chains.

European businesses are among those feeling the pinch, with the energy crisis adding to challenges including a shortage of memory chips and a lack of shipping containers.

‘WIND WIND TO CONTINUE’

Dutch health technology company Philips PHG.AS is the latest to slash its outlook for sales and profit growth in 2021, saying a global shortage of electronic components affected third-quarter results. He was also affected by a recall of breathing apparatus.

“Supply chain volatility has intensified globally,” said CEO Frans van Houten. “We expect this headwind to continue into the fourth quarter.”

Fuel prices remain high with oil LCOc1 trading near three-year highs Monday above $ 85 a barrel and up over 60% this year. WHERE

The European gas benchmark TRNLTTFMc1 may have fallen from this month’s high, but is still up over 350% this year.

Russia, which supplies around a third of Europe’s gas, has said it is ready to pump more, but Russian officials have also said Europe could ease its shortage and searing prices by giving the green light to the project. Nord Stream gas pipeline 2.

The Russian-led pipeline, which will double Russia’s export capacity to Germany via the Baltic Sea, said on Monday it had taken a new step to prepare for start-up.

Approval to start operations, however, could take months for the project, which the United States and some European countries oppose over fears it will make Europe even more dependent on Russian energy.

(Reporting by Kevin Yao, Gabriel Crossley, Muyu Xu and Shivani Singh in Beijing; Maria Kiselyova and Vladimir Soldatkin in Moscow; Bart Meijer in Amsterdam; Jason Hovet in Prague; Jessica Jaganathan in Singapore; edited by Edmund Blair and Jason Neely)

((edmund.blair@thomsonreuters.com; Reuters messaging: edmund.blair.thomsonreuters.com@thomsonreuters.net))

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.


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China’s GDP in Q3: China’s economy is weighed down by energy, maritime and real estate crises https://bizchina-update.com/chinas-gdp-in-q3-chinas-economy-is-weighed-down-by-energy-maritime-and-real-estate-crises/ Mon, 18 Oct 2021 07:00:00 +0000 https://bizchina-update.com/chinas-gdp-in-q3-chinas-economy-is-weighed-down-by-energy-maritime-and-real-estate-crises/ “The challenges to keep the economy running smoothly have increased,” Fu Linghui, spokesperson for China’s National Bureau of Statistics, said at a press conference in Beijing on Monday. He said the country’s recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic is “still volatile and uneven”. China was the only major economy to escape 2020 without falling into recession. […]]]>

“The challenges to keep the economy running smoothly have increased,” Fu Linghui, spokesperson for China’s National Bureau of Statistics, said at a press conference in Beijing on Monday. He said the country’s recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic is “still volatile and uneven”.

China was the only major economy to escape 2020 without falling into recession. But it has this year encountered a series of challenges that weigh heavily on growth.

The country is in the midst of an energy crisis that is reducing the output of factories and leading to blackouts in some regions. This problem was fueled by demand earlier this year for construction projects that require fossil fuels and are at odds with Beijing’s pursuit of ambitious carbon reduction targets.

Shipment delays and increased inventories have also hit small manufacturers in China who are now strapped for cash, leading to lost orders and cutbacks in production.

The real estate sector is also suffering from a government desire to curb excessive borrowing. Real estate investment is now on the decline. This is straining developers, notably Evergrande, whose debt crisis has raised concerns about the risk of contagion for the sector and the economy in general. Some other real estate companies have already indicated that they are struggling to pay off their debts.

The fallout from those headwinds was apparent in all of Monday’s data.

Industrial production rose only 3.1% last month from a year ago, the lowest rate since March 2020, when the pandemic hit the Chinese economy. Real estate-related activities, including the production of cement and steel, recorded sharp contractions. Investments in fixed assets, meanwhile, appear to have declined in September, reversing a slight gain in August, according to Goldman Sachs estimates.

“Official GDP growth slowed at a breakneck pace in the last quarter,” wrote Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior Chinese economist at Capital Economics, in a research note, adding that “industry and construction appear to be on the verge of dying. ‘a deeper slowdown “.

Slammed on three fronts

The triple threat of simultaneous crises in the energy, shipping and real estate sectors is unavoidable.

The manufacturing sector has been “hit hard” by supply chain disruptions, noted Iris Pang, chief economist for Greater China at ING Group. She pointed out in a research note on Monday that operations in some ports have been affected by the Covid outbreaks and the measures taken by authorities to contain them in the last quarter.

Meanwhile, a massive power crisis made matters worse. Larry Hu, head of the Chinese economy for the Macquarie Group, noted that the slowdown in industrial production was “more pronounced in energy-intensive sectors,” such as steel and cement.

Record inflation in Chinese factories poses another threat to supply chains

Beijing on Monday tried to allay fears about the impact of the energy crisis. Fu, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that “the limited energy supply is only a phase and the impact on the economy is controllable.”

While energy prices have “risen sharply” this year, he said the crisis would be “alleviated” as the government implements measures to bring the problem under control. In early October, for example, China ordered coal mines to increase production, just months after ordering the opposite to curb carbon emissions.

Some experts agreed that the energy crisis would likely dissipate.

“We believe electricity shortages and production cuts will become less of a problem” later in the fourth quarter, said Louis Kuijs, head of Asian economics for Oxford Economics. “Key policy makers have started to focus on growth and we expect them to start calling for the pursuit of climate goals on a more measured timeframe.”

Long-term problems in the real estate industry

The debt problems plaguing the country’s real estate sector could be more difficult to resolve.

Property, along with related industries, accounts for up to 30% of the country’s GDP. If Evergrande, the country’s second-largest developer in terms of sales, collapsed, investors and buyers could be frightened. A potential wave of developer defaults could have a significant impact on growth and pose risks to financial stability.

Real estate sales, investment and construction activity are already struggling. Real estate investment fell about 4% in September compared to a year ago, after leveling off in August. Compare that to the start of this year, when those investments jumped 38% in January and February.

“This shows how quickly the real estate industry has cooled recently,” Macquarie’s Hu wrote in a note on Monday, highlighting the data. He suspected the real estate sector would be “the key to watch” over the next year, and suggested that problems could be the biggest obstacle to China’s growth in 2022.

Fearing that the real estate market was overheating, Beijing began to tighten the screws on the sector in the summer of 2020 in forcing developers to reduce their debt.

And Earlier this year, the government made it clear it would prioritize “common prosperity” and tame leaking house prices, which it accused of worsening income inequality and threatening social stability.

Evergrande experienced a major liquidity crisis. He warned last month that he could default and has since missed at least three interest payments. The corporate crisis has also destabilized global investors in recent weeks, raising concerns about a potential domino effect on the wider Chinese economy and financial markets.

Beijing has tried to allay fears about the real estate sector. After weeks of silence on the developer, the People’s Bank of China said on Friday that Evergrande had mismanaged its affairs but that the risks to the financial system were “controllable”.

Beijing’s crackdown on The housing sector is “China’s key long-term challenge,” said Aidan Yao, senior economist for emerging Asia at AXA Investment Managers.

He told CNN Business, however, that problems with companies like Evergrande are unlikely to cause Beijing to make a political “U-turn” on the housing sector. Instead, the government can focus on trying to stop rampant speculation in the housing market.

“I think there might be some sort of fine-tuning of the margin on the tightening measures,” he said, while adding that the weakness in the sector “will spill over” into next year.

A housing slowdown will almost certainly continue to weigh on economic growth. Oxford Economics cut its growth forecast for the fourth quarter to 3.6%. It would be the worst performance since the second quarter of 2020.

A few bright spots, but trouble to come

There were encouraging signs, especially in services. Retail sales rose 4.4% in September, an acceleration from the 2.5% increase in August.

This is in large part because of China’s efforts to contain the coronavirus, according to Goldman Sachs analysts. While the country remains largely closed to the rest of the world, its zero-tolerance approach to containing infections has kept the virus from spreading uncontrollably.

Goldman analysts noted in a Monday note that while the controls reduced retail sales growth in August, those restrictions were quickly relaxed, contributing to a rebound.

The Delta variant hit the Chinese economy hard.  Now a real estate crisis is looming

They said they expected consumer spending to continue to recover in the fourth quarter, barring “big waves” of Covid-19 outbreaks.

Despite the slowdown in growth this quarter, China is also still on track to meet Beijing’s annual growth target of over 6%. For the first three quarters of 2021, GDP grew 9.8% compared to a year ago, when the Covid-19 pandemic was wreaking havoc.

“Overall, the economy continues to recover,” said Fu, spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, adding that the country had “the capacity and the conditions” to achieve its development goals this year.

But many analysts remain concerned. Several companies have downgraded their growth forecasts for China this year. And the country will likely have to take more steps to support growth in the coming months, according to Kuijs from Oxford Economics.

He wrote that China is likely to relax aspects of “comprehensive credit and real estate policies,” for example, and said policymakers are likely to encourage more infrastructure projects. also.

– CNN’s Kristie Lu Stout and Sophie Jeong contributed to this article.


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