The Chinese economy will continue to gain momentum in the coming months (British think tank)
China’s economy is expected to continue to gain momentum in the coming months as exports and manufacturing investment experience optimistic growth, Britain’s think tank Oxford Economics said in a report on Friday.
“We expect the economy to continue to accelerate in the coming months, with a rotation in terms of growth engines taking hold,” the report said.
The report came as official data from China showed the country’s economy grew 18.3% year-on-year in the first quarter (Q1) of 2021, as strong domestic and foreign demand fueled the recovery. from a low base in early 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic crippled the world’s second-largest economy.
China’s gross domestic product (GDP) reached 2493 trillion yuan (about $ 3.8 trillion) in the first quarter, up 0.6% from the fourth quarter of last year, showed Friday data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Oxford Economics was unsurprisingly that “all major business indicators posted substantial year-on-year increases in March and the first quarter as a whole, supported by favorable base effects”, predicting that growth robust economy will persist.
“Household consumption is expected to pick up steam as confidence improves and coronavirus caution wanes,” the think tank said, adding that “it depends on a convincing vaccination and further improvements. labor market conditions “.
Recent readings from the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) suggest that labor market conditions are gradually improving, Oxford Economics said, noting that the organization “will pay close attention to the evolution of the vaccination strategy and job growth over the next few months “.
At the same time, China’s total merchandise imports and exports jumped 29.2 percent year-on-year to 8.470 trillion yuan (about $ 1.29 trillion) in the first quarter of 2021, according to the figures. released on Wednesday by the General Administration of Customs of China (GAC).
The UK think tank predicts that both China’s exports and imports are expected to experience strong growth for the remainder of 2021 amid a positive global and domestic economic recovery. Meanwhile, “strong exports and improving business confidence should support business investment this year.”
“Indeed, the latest official PMI readings suggest that domestic and external demand is accelerating,” he added.
The Chinese economy registered a contraction of 6.8% in the first quarter of 2020 due to the new coronavirus. Thanks to a resolute and effective fight against viruses, the engine of global growth has recovered with a return to “V” by achieving three consecutive quarters of rebound last year (3.2% in Q2, 4.9% in Q3 and 6.5% in Q4).